WHAT’S Inflation and Deflation and a Speculation Concerning the Bitcoin Future

Recently I started investing in bitcoins and I’ve heard a great deal of discusses inflation and deflation however, not many people actually know and consider what inflation and deflation are. But let’s focus on inflation.

We always needed ways to trade value and probably the most practical way to take action is to link it with money. In past times it worked quite well as the money that was issued was linked to gold. So every central bank had to have enough gold to cover back all of the money it issued. However, in past times century this changed and gold isn’t what is giving value to money but promises. As you can guess it’s very easy to abuse to such power and certainly the major central banks aren’t renouncing to do so. Because of this they’re printing money, so in other words they’re “creating wealth” out of thin air without really having it. technical analysis exposes us to risks of economic collapse nonetheless it results also with the de-valuation of money. Therefore, because money is worth less, whoever is selling something has to raise the price of goods to reflect their real value, this is called inflation. But what’s behind the money printing? Why are central banks doing so? Well the answer they might give you is that by de-valuing their currency they are helping the exports.

In fairness, in our global economy this is true. However, that’s not the only reason. By issuing fresh money we are able to afford to cover back the debts we had, in other words we make new debts to pay the old ones. But that’s not only it, by de-valuing our currencies we are de-facto de-valuing our debts. That’s why our countries love inflation. In inflationary environments it’s easier to grow because debts are cheap. But what are the consequences of most this? It’s hard to store wealth. So if you keep the money (you worked hard to obtain) in your bank account you’re actually losing wealth because your money is de-valuing pretty quickly.

Because each central bank has an inflation target at around 2% we can well say that keeping money costs all of us at least 2% per year. This discourages savers and spur consumes. This is one way our economies are working, predicated on inflation and debts.

What about deflation? Well this is often the opposite of inflation and it is the biggest nightmare for our central banks, let’s understand why. Basically, we have deflation when overall the prices of goods fall. This would be caused by a rise of value of money. Firstly, it would hurt spending as consumers will undoubtedly be incentivised to save lots of money because their value increase overtime. Alternatively merchants will be under constant pressure. They’ll have to sell their goods quick otherwise they’ll lose money as the price they will charge for their services will drop over time. But when there is something we learned in these years is that central banks and governments usually do not care much about consumers or merchants, what they care the most is DEBT!!. In a deflationary environment debt will become a real burden as it will only get bigger as time passes. Because our economies derive from debt you can imagine what will function as consequences of deflation.

So in summary, inflation is growth friendly but is based on debt. Therefore the future generations can pay our debts. Deflation however makes growth harder but it means that future generations won’t have much debt to cover (in such context it will be possible to afford slow growth).

OK so how all of this fits with bitcoins?

Well, bitcoins are designed to be an alternative for the money also to be both a store of value and a mean for trading goods. They are limited in number and we’ll never have a lot more than 21 million bitcoins around. Therefore they are designed to be deflationary. Now we have all seen what the results of deflation are. However, in a bitcoin-based future it could still be easy for businesses to thrive. The ideal solution will be to switch from the debt-based economy to a share-based economy. In fact, because contracting debts in bitcoins would be very costly business can still have the capital they need by issuing shares of these company. This could be an interesting alternative as it will offer you many investment opportunities and the wealth generated will undoubtedly be distributed more evenly among people. However, simply for clarity, I have to say that part of the costs of borrowing capital will undoubtedly be reduced under bitcoins as the fees will be extremely low and there won’t be intermediaries between transactions (banks rip people off, both borrowers and lenders). This would buffer a few of the negative sides of deflation. Nevertheless, bitcoins will face many problems unfortunately, as governments still need fiat money to cover back the huge debts that we inherited from the past generations.